Bill Simmons — OTR Score

Total Takes

Correct

Wrong

+447

Net Score

NBA Win Total Over/Unders — 2025-26 Preseason 5-4

OVER 42.5 Milwaukee Bucks

"Giannis is the best player in the Eastern Conference. Milwaukee has roster depth, great shooting splits, and a motivated Myles Turner. I'm taking the over."

−171

Burned

Wrong ✗

The Bill Simmons Podcast · FanDuel Research · Oct 17, 2025

Final record: 32-50

Consensus 1.5× NBA · Season

OVER 56.5 Cleveland Cavaliers

"Cleveland had a +9.2 net rating last year, third-best in the league. Evan Mobley is due for a breakout. The downgrade of teams around them in the East has me backing the over."

−114

Burned

Wrong ✗

The Bill Simmons Podcast · FanDuel Research · Oct 17, 2025

Clinched under

Safe 1× NBA · Season

UNDER 35.5 Sacramento Kings

"I'm on a hard under for the Kings. Too many question marks on the roster and a Keegan Murray injury before the season even starts. This team is not complete."

+171

Banked

Correct ✓

The Bill Simmons Podcast · FanDuel Research · Oct 17, 2025

Clinched under

Consensus 1.5× NBA · Season

OVER 40.5 Dallas Mavericks

"Cooper Flagg has a chance to be the most impactful American rookie since Anthony Davis. Dallas has the depth and length to give teams problems every night."

+171

Banked

Correct ✓

The Bill Simmons Podcast · FanDuel Research · Oct 17, 2025

Clinched over

Consensus 1.5× NBA · Season

UNDER 19.5 Brooklyn Nets

"The Nets roster is full of young guards and too many ball-handlers. Too many question marks on how this team will gel. Another long season for Brooklyn."

−114

Burned

Wrong ✗

The Bill Simmons Podcast · FanDuel Research · Oct 17, 2025

Clinched over

Safe 1× NBA · Season

OVER 53.5 Denver Nuggets

"This could be Denver's best roster since drafting Jokic. The additions of Cameron Johnson, Bruce Brown, Valanciunas, and Hardaway make this team dangerous top to bottom."

−228

Burned

Wrong ✗

The Bill Simmons Podcast · FanDuel Research · Oct 17, 2025

Clinched under

Bold 2× NBA · Season

OVER 43.5 San Antonio Spurs

"Every great big man in NBA history had their Year Three breakout — Tim Duncan, Kareem, Hakeem, Shaq, Robinson. Wemby's Year Three is coming. San Antonio goes over."

+228

Banked

Correct ✓

The Bill Simmons Podcast · FanDuel Research · Oct 17, 2025

Clinched over · Spurs made playoffs

Bold 2× NBA · Season

OVER 62.5 Oklahoma City Thunder

"OKC had a +12.7 net rating last season — the best in NBA history. Largely unchanged roster. I drew comparisons to the 1992 Bulls who won 67 games after a championship. Thunder go over."

+228

Banked

Correct ✓

The Bill Simmons Podcast · FanDuel Research · Oct 17, 2025

Final record: 64-18 · Clinched over

Bold 2× NBA · Season

UNDER 20.5 Washington Wizards

"Washington already overperformed an expected 15-win record last season. A laundry list of personnel changes, third-youngest roster in the league. Under."

+114

Banked

Correct ✓

The Bill Simmons Podcast · FanDuel Research · Oct 17, 2025

Clinched under

Safe 1× NBA · Season

Additional Takes — NFL & NBA 2025 5-1

"I really believe in Drake Maye. I genuinely think this could be a breakout thing. I have them at ten and seven."

+216

Banked

Correct ✓

The Bill Simmons Podcast · Aug 28, 2025

Patriots finished 14-3 — Simmons undersold it

Bold 2× NFL · Season Record

"The Patriots can reach the Super Bowl. I'm not ruling it out. This team has the pieces and Vrabel knows how to win in January."

+168

Banked

Correct ✓

The Bill Simmons Podcast · Dec 23, 2025

Patriots reached Super Bowl LX · Lost to Seahawks

Contrarian 2.5× NFL · Playoff

"I did not have Patrick Mahomes at the top of the pyramid. When it came right down to it, I just think Josh Allen's the best quarterback in the league. Game by game, regular season, durability. I just don't think it's fair to put Mahomes over Allen."

+255

Banked

Correct ✓

The Bill Simmons Podcast w/ Sheil Kapadia · Aug 10, 2025

Allen had better 2025 season · Chiefs missed playoffs · Mahomes .500 record

Contrarian 2.5× NFL · Player

"I expected Denver to make the Finals and play either the Celtics or the Knicks. Those are the teams. That's your Finals."

−126

Burned

Wrong ✗

The Bill Simmons Podcast · April 2026 (pre-playoffs)

Nuggets lost R1 to Timberwolves · Celtics lost R1 to 76ers

Consensus 1.5× NBA · Championship

"Every great big man in NBA history had their Year Three breakout. I could see Wemby having one of those 27-in-22-minutes games on the biggest stage. His Year Three is coming and it's going to be something."

+204

Banked

Correct ✓

The Bill Simmons Podcast · Oct & June 2025

Wemby won unanimous DPOY · Led Spurs to playoffs · Mathurin scored exactly 27 in 22 mins in Finals Game 3

Bold 2× NBA · Player Trajectory

"SGA is going to win the MVP. SGA looks like he's veering into this Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant area. I think it's already happened. He has a chance to be Finals MVP two years in a row."

+153

Banked

Correct ✓

The Bill Simmons Podcast · March 2026

SGA won back-to-back MVP · 83 of 100 first-place votes

Consensus 1.5× NBA · Player / Award

OTR Hall of Fame — Simmons Edition

✓

🏆 Greatest Take

"Every great big man in NBA history had their Year Three breakout. I could see Wemby having one of those 27-in-22-minutes games on the biggest stage."

Oct 2025 · The Ringer O/U Pod · Bold (2×) · Player trajectory · Mathurin scored exactly 27 in 22 mins in Finals Game 3

+204

✗

💀 Worst Take

"This could be Denver's best roster since drafting Jokic. The additions of Cameron Johnson, Bruce Brown, Valanciunas make this team dangerous top to bottom."

Oct 2025 · FanDuel Research · Bold (2×) · Nuggets over 53.5 · Finished well under · Lost R1

−228

✓

📈 Best Call

"I did not have Patrick Mahomes at the top of the pyramid. I just think Josh Allen's the best quarterback in the league."

Aug 2025 · Podcast w/ Sheil Kapadia · Contrarian (2.5×) · Chiefs missed playoffs · Allen went deep

+255

✗

🧊 Biggest Miss

"Giannis is the best player in the Eastern Conference. Milwaukee has roster depth, great shooting splits, and a motivated Myles Turner. I'm taking the over."

Oct 2025 · FanDuel Research · Consensus (1.5×) · Bucks over 42.5 · Finished 32-50

−171

Accountability Record

Voluntary corrections

Revisited wrong takes on air

Deleted posts

Flagged and archived by OTR

Integrity Score

+44

Net accountability adjustment