The foundation of the OTR Score. Correct calls divided by all resolved takes. Adjusted for category — score predictions weighted differently than long-term narrative calls. The clearest single signal of who actually knows their stuff.
Sets the Line value. Safe takes earn less and risk less. Bold takes put more on the line — in both directions. Difficulty cross-referenced against market consensus and odds at the time the take was made. For sportsbook takes, the posted odds set the difficulty automatically.
Hedge language kills your Line. "The Lakers will struggle" scores 0.2×. "Lakers finish 9th in the West with 41 wins" scores 1.0×. Words like "might," "could," and "wouldn't surprise me" are automatically detected and penalized.
Short-term takes settle fast and earn less. Long-horizon takes are in play longer — but the Line reflects the conviction. A career or era narrative call that lands is a major OTR moment.
Accountability Behavior
10%
The integrity layer. Tracked from transcripts and social media. Doesn't change the Line but adjusts the overall OTR Score. Positive: revisiting calls unprompted, public corrections, updating stance with evidence. Negative: deleting posts after a verdict, retroactive reframing, pretending a take never happened. Deleted posts are archived by OTR permanently.
Editorial Review
The vast majority of takes are classified and scored automatically. When our system has lower confidence — ambiguous subjects, multi-speaker clips, satirical framing — those takes are flagged for editorial review before publishing.
Every editorial decision is logged with a reason code and timestamp. Reviewed takes are marked "Editorially Reviewed" on the platform. We show our work.